# Legal notice, terms and privacy — v1.0 Effective 24 September 2026. This page covers the Crisis Observatory website at crisis.parad1gm.com (the "Site") and the automated posts on the X account @prismbyparad1gm (the "posts"). It is published by Parad1gm ("we", "us"). By using the Site or reading the posts you accept it; if you do not, please do not use them. ## 1. Important notice: not investment advice Crisis Observatory publishes a statistical index of financial and economic stress, and the research behind it. It is provided for general information and education only. **It is not investment, financial, legal, tax or accounting advice.** Nothing on the Site or in the posts is a recommendation, solicitation or offer to buy, sell or hold any security, currency, commodity, digital asset or other instrument, or to follow any strategy. It does not take into account anyone's objectives, financial situation or needs. No one associated with the Site is acting as your investment adviser, broker, fiduciary or agent through it, and using it creates no advisory, client or other relationship with us. **The reading is a gauge, not a prediction.** The Stress Index measures system pressure from published data. It is not a probability of a crash, a forecast, or a date. It can be wrong, late or misleading. Markets can fall when the reading is low and rise when it is high. **Historical results are retrospective, not a track record.** The Track record page, its alarms, lift figures, hit rates and lead times are analyses run after the fact with today's rules on current, revised data. They are not signals issued in real time, no one traded on them, and no performance is stated or implied. The rules were chosen by searching the same historical record; with about fifteen episodes in nineteen years, a pattern found there can be a coincidence and may not recur. Past patterns do not assure future results. **Descriptions are not forecasts.** Statements about what a level "would" mean or what crossing it "would" signal explain how the index is built. They are not predictions. **Health, weather, water and disaster figures are economic context only.** They are not warnings, forecasts or safety information. For any risk to health, safety or property, follow the official warnings of the relevant public authority. Investing involves risk, including loss of the money you invest. Do your own research and speak to a qualified, licensed professional before making any financial decision. You alone are responsible for your decisions and their results. ## 2. Accuracy, availability and no warranty The Site and the posts are provided "as is" and "as available", without warranties of any kind, express or implied, including accuracy, completeness, timeliness, merchantability, fitness for a particular purpose and non-infringement. Data comes from third parties and is collected automatically. It can be delayed, revised, incomplete or wrong, and a source can fail; when one does, the reading shows it as missing rather than filling it in. Times shown are "as of" times, and quotes can be delayed. The Site can be unavailable or stale at any moment, and we have no duty to update or correct it. ## 3. Limitation of liability To the fullest extent permitted by law, we, our owners, contributors and service providers are not liable for any loss or damage of any kind arising from your use of, or inability to use, the Site or the posts, or from reliance on anything in them. That includes any investment, trading, business or personal decision, any loss of profit, revenue, savings or opportunity, and any indirect, incidental, special, consequential or punitive damages, even if we were told such loss was possible. Where liability cannot be excluded by law, it is limited to the greatest extent the law allows and in any event to US$100. Nothing here excludes liability that cannot lawfully be excluded. ## 4. Terms of use You may read the Site, share links to it, and quote short extracts with attribution to "Crisis Observatory, crisis.parad1gm.com" and a link, for personal, non-commercial, informational purposes. You may not use the Site unlawfully; copy it in bulk or call its public data feed at a rate that burdens the service; try to disrupt it or test its security without our written permission; present our analysis as your own; or imply that we endorse you or your product. Data from third parties stays subject to those providers' terms (section 6), and nothing here grants you rights in it. The original text, calculations and design of the Site are copyright 2026 Parad1gm, all rights reserved except as stated here. We may change or withdraw the Site, the posts or these terms at any time, and may block access to anyone who misuses it. If a provision of these terms cannot be enforced, the rest still apply. The Site is not directed at anyone in a place where publishing or using it would be unlawful. ## 5. Privacy **What we collect: nothing about you.** The Site has no accounts, forms, comments or advertising. It does not set cookies, use analytics or tracking, load third-party scripts, fonts or embeds, or store anything in your browser. Every page loads from our own domain. **What our host sees.** Like every website, when your browser requests a page the server and our hosting provider, [Railway](https://railway.com/legal/privacy), receive technical information: your IP address, the time, the address requested, your browser's user-agent and the response status. We use it only to run and secure the Site. Our application itself records only the path and status code of failed requests, never IP addresses, cookies or content. Railway may keep its own operational logs under its own policy and may process them in the United States and other countries. We do not sell this information, share it for advertising, or build profiles from it. Where the law requires a legal basis, ours is a legitimate interest in operating and securing the Site. **Contacting us.** If you message us, we receive what you send and use it only to reply. Messages sent through X are also handled by X under [its privacy policy](https://x.com/en/privacy). **X.** The posts appear on X, a separate service. If you follow, like or reply to a post, X, not us, collects that data. Links in our posts are plain links without tracking parameters. **Your rights.** Depending on where you live, you may have rights over personal data, such as access, correction, deletion, restriction or objection, and to complain to a data-protection authority. Because we keep no data that identifies visitors, we will usually be unable to find any data of yours, and will tell you so. We do not sell or share personal information, or use it for targeted advertising, and there is no tracking to opt out of, so Do Not Track and Global Privacy Control signals need no special handling. **Children.** The Site is not directed at children under 13 (16 in the European Economic Area, and the UK), and we do not knowingly collect their information. ## 6. Data sources and attribution The figures come from the providers below. Their data belongs to them, is used here for research and commentary, and we make no claim of ownership. Names and marks belong to their owners, who do not sponsor, endorse or verify this Site. Providers revise and withdraw data, and some third-party series carry their own copyright notice on the provider's page, which governs that series. If you are a rights holder and believe a use here is not permitted, or want an attribution changed, contact us (section 9) and we will review it promptly and, where appropriate, remove or change it. - **Official and government sources:** [Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis FRED](https://fred.stlouisfed.org) and the data owners behind it (the Federal Reserve Board, the Federal Reserve Banks of Chicago and St. Louis, the Bureau of Economic Analysis, the Bureau of Labor Statistics); the [Federal Reserve](https://www.federalreserve.gov) (stress-test scenarios and results, Senior Loan Officer Survey); the [Federal Reserve Bank of New York](https://www.newyorkfed.org) (SOFR); the [U.S. Treasury](https://home.treasury.gov) (yield curve and [Fiscal Data](https://fiscaldata.treasury.gov)); [NOAA](https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov) (ENSO and temperature); [NASA GISS](https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/) (temperature); the [Bureau of Reclamation](https://www.usbr.gov) (reservoirs); the [U.S. Drought Monitor](https://droughtmonitor.unl.edu), produced by the National Drought Mitigation Center at the University of Nebraska-Lincoln with the U.S. Department of Agriculture and NOAA; the [CDC](https://www.cdc.gov) (respiratory illness and wastewater); [CISA](https://www.cisa.gov/known-exploited-vulnerabilities-catalog) (exploited vulnerabilities). - **International and industry sources:** [IMF PortWatch](https://portwatch.imf.org) (shipping transits); the [Bank for International Settlements](https://www.bis.org) (credit statistics, via FRED); the [European Central Bank](https://www.ecb.europa.eu) (euro reference rates); [FINRA](https://www.finra.org/investors/learn-to-invest/advanced-investing/margin-statistics) (margin statistics); the [FAO](https://www.fao.org/worldfoodsituation/foodpricesindex/en/) (Food Price Index); the [India Meteorological Department](https://mausam.imd.gov.in) (monsoon rainfall); the [Kenneth R. French Data Library](https://mba.tuck.dartmouth.edu/pages/faculty/ken.french/data_library.html) (equity returns); [Realtor.com](https://www.realtor.com/research/) (listings, via FRED); [Baker, Bloom and Davis](https://www.policyuncertainty.com) (trade-policy uncertainty). - **Market data:** [Cboe](https://www.cboe.com) (VIX); [ICE Data Indices](https://www.ice.com) (ICE BofA credit indices, via FRED, and the MOVE index); [S&P Dow Jones Indices](https://www.spglobal.com/spdji) (S&P 500); [Nasdaq](https://www.nasdaq.com) (Nasdaq Composite); [Nikkei](https://indexes.nikkei.co.jp/en) (Nikkei 225); Moody's (Baa and Aaa corporate yields, via FRED); and delayed quotes from [Yahoo Finance](https://finance.yahoo.com). - **Commercial real estate:** [Trepp](https://www.trepp.com) CMBS delinquency and special-servicing rates, as reported in Trepp's public monthly CMBS Delinquency Report and republished by trade press. Trepp is not affiliated with this Site and does not endorse it. - **Other:** Synergy Research Group (cloud-provider share, as reported by Statista). ## 7. The automated posts The posts on @prismbyparad1gm are generated and published by software from the same data as the Site, on a fixed schedule, without human review before they appear. They can be delayed, skipped or wrong, they are not alerts or warnings, and we do not monitor the account continuously or promise to answer replies. Each post says it is not investment advice. Following the account creates no relationship with us. We do not endorse replies or other third-party content on X. ## 8. Accessibility We want the Site to be usable by everyone and keep working to improve it. If you meet a barrier, tell us (section 9) and we will try to give you the same information in another form. ## 9. Who we are and how to reach us Crisis Observatory is published by Parad1gm. To reach us, including for privacy requests, rights-holder notices and accessibility problems: - X: [@prismbyparad1gm](https://x.com/prismbyparad1gm) - Email: prism@revalidata.com ## 10. Changes to this page We may update this page. The effective date at the top shows when it last changed; using the Site after a change means you accept the new version.